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Our Blog .
Oil rallies & gold hits 7-year high as tensions flare in the Middle East

The escalating situation in the region following the assassination of a top Iranian military commander has given the yellow metal its highest rates in nearly seven years, and raised oil to prices last seen in mid-2019. Gold, which is considered a safe haven investment amid political and economic turmoil, gained around 1.5 percent on Monday. At one point the precious metal hit $1,579.55 per ounce, the highest price since April 2013. As of 08:07am GMT it was already down to $1,571.95 per ounce - still around 1.3 percent more than in the previous session.Rising US-Iran tensions could further boost gold prices, according to Goldman Sachs' projections. “All in all, we stick with our three, six and 12-month forecast of $1,600/toz (per troy ounce) but see upside risks if geopolitical tensions worsen,” its strategist said in a note Monday.Another precious metal, palladium, also rallied on Monday as it reached a record price of $2,011.48 an ounce, according to Reuters.Crude prices have been on the rise since the news broke of Qassem Soleimani’s death in a US airstrike in Baghdad last week. Oil experienced further gains on Monday amid fears that a conflict in the Middle East could disrupt global oil supplies.The US benchmark was up 2 percent, trading at $64.32 per barrel - its highest level since April. Futures of global benchmark Brent climbed more than 2.3 percent and topped $70 per barrel, reaching a peak not seen since May. The last time both Brent and WTI posted such large gains was in September, when an attack on energy giant Saudi Aramco’s infrastructure temporarily halved the kingdom's oil production.Washington and Tehran traded threatsover the weekend, with US President Donald Trump vowing to respond in “disproportionate manner” should Iran “strike any US person or target.” He also said that the US could strike 52 Iranian targets, including cultural sites, should Iran attempt to revenge for Soleimani’s assassination.

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Oil falls but on track for biggest yearly rise since 2016

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices edged lower on the last trading day of the decade on Tuesday but were still on track for monthly and annual gains, supported by a thaw in the prolonged U.S.-China trade row and Middle East unrest. Brent has gained about 23% in 2019 and WTI has risen 36%. Both benchmarks are set for their biggest yearly gains in three years, backed by a breakthrough in U.S.-China trade talks and output cuts pledged by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies.On Tuesday, trade volumes remained low as many market participants were away for year-end holidays.Brent crude (LCOc1) was down 32 cents at $66.35 a barrel by 12:40 p.m. EST (1740 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude (CLc1) fell 17 cents to $61.51 a barrel.(GRAPHIC: Oil holds steady in 2019 despite supply shocks - https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/7/7847/7829/oil%202019.png)"This year's oil trade is winding down amidst some subdued, low-volume trading conditions," Jim Ritterbusch, president of trading advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates, said in a note.U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that the Phase 1 trade deal with China would be signed on Jan. 15 at the White House.The breakthrough in the talks has already boosted factories' output and Chinese manufacturing activity expanded for a second straight month.China's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), an index showing economic trends in the manufacturing and service sectors, was unchanged at 50.2 in December from November, but still remained above the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction.Tensions in the Middle East also kept traders on edge as thousands of protesters and militia fighters gathered outside the U.S. embassy in Baghdad to condemn U.S. air strikes against Iraqi militias.Security guards inside the U.S. embassy fired stun grenades at protesters and the U.S. ambassador and other staff were evacuated due to security concerns. The U.S. strikes could pull Iraq further into the heart of a proxy conflict between the United States and Iran. "Considering that Iraq is the second-largest OPEC producer with production around 4.6 million barrels per day, market participants may add a risk premium to oil tension if tensions last for longer," UBS oil analyst Giovanni Staunovo said."That said, we need to see if the latest protests spread also in the south of the country, where most of the crude is exported." U.S. crude oil production in October rose to a record of 12.66 million barrels per day (bpd) from a revised 12.48 million bpd in September, the U.S. government said in a monthly report on Tuesday.Looking ahead, U.S. crude inventories are expected to fall by about 3.2 million barrels in the week to Dec. 27, potentially its third consecutive weekly decline, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday. (GRAPHIC: OPEC Production - https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/7/7848/7830/OPEC.png)Oil prices are likely to hover around $63 a barrel next year, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday, benefiting from deeper production cuts by OPEC and its allies, and hopes that a U.S.-China trade deal could jumpstart economic growth."Oil prices, though largely expected to trade positive, will face headwinds from subdued global growth momentum and robust U.S. shale output levels in the first quarter (of 2020)," said Benjamin Lu, an analyst at Phillip Futures.